Handbook

Basics

How prediction markets and their prices work. Every basics guide in the handbook.

• How to Read Prediction Market Odds: Price, Spread and Fees

  A prediction market price is an implied probability: a YES contract at 62¢ pays $1 if the event happens, so the market prices it at about 62%. Buyers pay the ask, sellers get the bid, and taker fees raise the break-even. On Kalshi, a 62¢ taker buy needs a 63.65% win rate to break even.