Prediction Market Handbook

Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? (November 2026)

Tue, 10 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000

As of November 10, 2026, prediction markets are legal under federal law when run as CFTC-regulated exchanges, such as Kalshi and Polymarket US. States argue sports contracts are gambling. Courts have blocked contracts in Michigan, Nevada and Washington, federal appeals courts are split, and three petitions await the Supreme Court.

How to Read Prediction Market Odds: Price, Spread and Fees

Tue, 10 Nov 2026 00:00:00 +0000

A prediction market price is an implied probability: a YES contract at 62¢ pays $1 if the event happens, so the market prices it at about 62%. Buyers pay the ask, sellers get the bid, and taker fees raise the break-even. On Kalshi, a 62¢ taker buy needs a 63.65% win rate to break even.

About the Prediction Market Handbook

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Basics

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Editorial policy

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Last updated November 10, 2026.

Who publishes this site

Prediction Market Handbook is published by Prediction Market Handbook, a small independent editorial team. Articles carry the desk's name instead of individual bylines. We are not affiliated with, paid by, or partnered with any prediction market, exchange, or sportsbook, and we do not use affiliate links.

How the market data pages work

Pages that show odds, price charts, movers, or resolutions are generated from public data published by Polymarket and Kalshi. Each page shows when its data was fetched. A price on a prediction market is the last traded or midpoint price of a contract that pays $1 if an event happens, so a 62 cent price is read as a 62% implied chance. Prices move, can be thin, and can be wrong. Where we compute something (a change, an average, an accuracy rate) the method is described on the page.

Glossary

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How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? Calibration of Resolved Polymarket Markets

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Legal

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Platforms

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Prediction Market Break-Even Calculator (Kalshi and Polymarket Fees)

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Privacy policy

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Last updated November 10, 2026.

What we collect

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Strategy

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Terms of use

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Last updated November 10, 2026.

Information only

Everything on predictionmarket.fit is general information about prediction markets and related news. It is not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, and it is not an offer or recommendation to trade any contract.

Market data

Odds, prices, volumes, and resolutions shown on this site come from third-party public data and are provided as-is, with the time they were fetched. They may be delayed, incomplete, or wrong. Check the venue itself before relying on any number.