Guides

• Kalshi vs Polymarket: Fees, Access and Resolution Compared

  As of November 11, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket US are CFTC-regulated exchanges that take dollars and decide outcomes in-house. Polymarket's international site uses crypto collateral, blocks US users and resolves markets through UMA's optimistic oracle. All three charge takers a fee shaped like P x (1 - P), and resting maker orders usually pay nothing.

• Why New Prediction Market Traders Should Start as Makers

  Our view is that most new prediction market traders are better served by resting limit orders, which make them the maker, than by taking. Takers pay up to 1.75¢ per contract on Kalshi and 2.38¢ on Polymarket US, makers usually pay nothing, and a Kalshi study found makers averaged minus 9.64% against minus 31.46% for takers.

• Are Prediction Markets Legal in the US? (November 2026)

  As of November 10, 2026, prediction markets are legal under federal law when run as CFTC-regulated exchanges, such as Kalshi and Polymarket US. States argue sports contracts are gambling. Courts have blocked contracts in Michigan, Nevada and Washington, federal appeals courts are split, and three petitions await the Supreme Court.

• How to Read Prediction Market Odds: Price, Spread and Fees

  A prediction market price is an implied probability: a YES contract at 62¢ pays $1 if the event happens, so the market prices it at about 62%. Buyers pay the ask, sellers get the bid, and taker fees raise the break-even. On Kalshi, a 62¢ taker buy needs a 63.65% win rate to break even.