Yes, under federal law. As of November 10, 2026, prediction markets that operate as exchanges registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), such as Kalshi and Polymarket US, are legal to run nationwide. The fight is over sports contracts: several states say those are gambling and fall under state law. Courts have ordered platforms to block users in three states (Michigan, Nevada and Washington), federal appeals courts disagree with each other, and three petitions are waiting at the Supreme Court.
This is not legal advice. It is a dated summary of public court and agency records.
What makes a prediction market legal under federal law?
A prediction market becomes federally legal by registering with the CFTC as a designated contract market (DCM), the same category as a futures exchange. Kalshi received that license in November 2020, according to a University College Dublin paper on Kalshi’s pricing. Polymarket’s US exchange is run by QCX LLC, which was designated a contract market in July 2025, per CryptoSlate.
Three features of the federal setup matter for the legal fight, as summarized by WSN’s legal tracker (updated November 9, 2026):
- Self-certification. A DCM lists a new contract by certifying to the CFTC that it complies with the law. The CFTC reviews after the fact.
- A federal veto on “gaming.” The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) lets the CFTC bar event contracts tied to gaming when they are against the public interest.
- Preemption. Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC argue Congress gave the CFTC exclusive control over these exchanges, so state gambling laws do not apply.
States answer that a bet on a football game is not a “swap” under the CEA, so their licensing, tax and age rules still apply. The stakes are large: about 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume is on sports, the Associated Press reported in February 2026.
Which states have blocked prediction markets?
As of November 10, 2026, courts have ordered geoblocking in three states. Most other state actions are lawsuits, cease-and-desist letters or rulings that let a state enforce but have not yet produced a shutdown. The table covers the states with a court order or an appeals ruling; it is not a full 50-state list.
| State | Status (Nov. 10, 2026) | What the record shows |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | Blocked (sports contracts) | Ingham County judge issued a preliminary injunction on Sept. 1 requiring Kalshi to geofence, with a $500,000 daily fine (The Block). Polymarket US agreed to close Michigan sports positions by Nov. 25 (CryptoSlate). |
| Nevada | Blocked (Kalshi and Polymarket) | Ninth Circuit ruled for Nevada on Aug. 28 and denied rehearing Nov. 4 (DeFi Rate). A state judge enjoined Polymarket in late May (Casino.org). |
| Washington | Blocked (most non-financial contracts on Kalshi) | Court order bars sports, elections, politics, entertainment, culture, tech, science and “mentions”; commodities, climate, economics and finance contracts stay (The Block). |
| New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware | Protected by appeals ruling | Third Circuit ruled 2 to 1 for Kalshi on April 6; New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to reverse (WSN). |
| Ohio, Tennessee | State may enforce | Sixth Circuit ruled for both states on Sept. 25; Kalshi asked the full court to rehear on Oct. 9 (WSN). |
| New York, Connecticut | State may enforce | Second Circuit denied Kalshi and Coinbase injunctions pending appeal on Nov. 3 (DeFi Rate). |
| Utah | State may enforce | Federal judge ruled for Utah on Aug. 4; Tenth Circuit denied Kalshi emergency relief Sept. 8; state filed criminal charges Oct. 28 (WSN). |
| Maryland | Pending | Fourth Circuit heard argument May 7, 2026; no ruling (WSN). |
| Massachusetts | Pending | State court injunction from January 2026 is paused during Kalshi’s appeal (WSN). |
| California (two tribal lands) | Blocked on those lands only | Federal judge barred Kalshi’s sports contracts on Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria lands on Nov. 4 (SCCG). |
WSN counts 23 states that are suing, issuing orders or defending suits as of November 9, 2026.
What is the federal appeals court split?
Three federal appeals courts have ruled on whether the CEA overrides state gambling law for sports contracts, and they disagree:
- Third Circuit (New Jersey), April 2026: for Kalshi. Judge David J. Porter wrote that sports-event contracts should be treated as swaps under CFTC authority, Front Office Sports reported.
- Ninth Circuit (Nevada), August 28, 2026: for the state, 3 to 0. The panel found Kalshi’s sports contracts were likely not swaps, so Nevada could regulate them as gambling (DeFi Rate).
- Sixth Circuit (Ohio and Tennessee), September 25, 2026: for the states. Per WSN, it held that federal law does not override state gaming law even if the contracts are swaps.
All of these came at the preliminary-injunction stage. A lawyer quoted by Front Office Sports noted that both the Third and Ninth Circuit decisions “arise from preliminary-injunction proceedings, not final merit judgments.”
What is pending at the Supreme Court?
Three petitions ask the Court to resolve the split. None had been granted as of November 10, 2026.
- Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299. New Jersey filed on September 2, 2026. The official docket shows Kalshi’s response deadline was extended on September 22 to November 9, then extended again on October 30 to December 7, 2026. Amicus briefs urging review include filings from a group of states led by Ohio, the NFL, the American Gaming Association and 145 tribes.
- Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer, No. 26-338. Robinhood’s challenge to the Ninth Circuit’s Nevada ruling, filed in September (WSN).
- Crypto.com v. Nevada, No. 26-344. A parallel challenge to the same Nevada ruling (WSN).
Kalshi has its own path from the Ninth Circuit. After the November 4 rehearing denial, it has 90 days to petition the Supreme Court, which puts the deadline at February 2, 2027 unless extended (DeFi Rate).
Is Polymarket legal in the US?
There are two Polymarkets, and US law treats them differently.
- Polymarket US is operated by QCX LLC, a CFTC-designated contract market. It is open to US residents except in Nevada, where a court order blocks it, per CryptoSlate’s review (updated November 10, 2026). New York’s attorney general and governor sued Polymarket US on September 24, 2026 over traders aged 18 to 20, according to WSN.
- Polymarket.com, the international exchange, still blocks US users. A 2022 CFTC settlement required that block and a $1.4 million civil penalty, Cointelegraph reported. Bloomberg reported in April 2026 that Polymarket was seeking CFTC approval to reopen the main platform to US users; we found no confirmation that it was approved.
What did the CFTC order in November 2026?
On November 5, 2026, the CFTC issued an interpretation of its impartial access rule (Regulation 38.151(b)). It directs DCMs to stop domestic geographic restrictions within 30 days or explain to the Division of Market Oversight why compliance is not feasible. Chairman Michael Selig said “Geographic access restrictions are inconsistent” with the Act’s purposes. Counting 30 days from November 5 puts the deadline around December 5, 2026, CDC Gaming noted.
The order sets up a conflict with the court orders requiring geofencing in Michigan, Nevada and Washington, SCCG noted. The CFTC has overridden a state court before: on July 14, 2026 it used emergency authority to require Kalshi to settle open Michigan trades that a state court had told it to cancel. WSN counts 10 CFTC lawsuits against states, the most recent against Utah on October 27.
What are the age limits?
- Kalshi: 18 or older, plus document verification if requested (Kalshi Help Center).
- Polymarket US: 18, or the local age of majority where higher: 19 in Alabama and Nebraska, 21 in Mississippi (CryptoSlate).
- State gambling: generally 21, per the AP. The gap is part of several state cases. Arkansas’s November 4 suit against Kalshi cites users as young as 18, and Missouri’s cease-and-desist letters demand that operators keep out users under 21 (WSN).
How do you check whether you can trade in your state?
- Confirm the platform is a CFTC-registered exchange. Kalshi and Polymarket US are; Polymarket.com is not available to US users.
- Check whether your state is one of the three with a court-ordered block (Michigan, Nevada, Washington) and which contract types that order covers.
- Check whether your state’s federal circuit has ruled. States in the Sixth and Ninth Circuits have rulings that let them enforce; New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Delaware sit under the Third Circuit’s pro-Kalshi ruling.
- Check the platform’s own eligibility rules for age and residency.
- Re-check after December 5, 2026 (the approximate CFTC deadline) and after any Supreme Court order in No. 26-299, since either can change access.